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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-09-11T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-11T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33323/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the NE by STEREO A COR2. There is currently no SOHO LASCO imagery for this event due to a data gap from 11/02:36Z to 11/07:12Z. The source of this event is an M1.0 class flare peaking at 2024-09-10T23:50Z and subsequent eruption from AR 3814 (N16W03) as seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 304. The flare peaked at 2024-09-10T23:50Z, however the eruption continued through approx. 11/01:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 304. Opening field lines, slight dimming and a possible EUV wave can be seen propagating towards the NE in SDO AIA 193, 211 and STEREO A EUVI 195. Due to the lack of SOHO data available to triangulate the source, there is some degree of uncertainty in the latitude and longitude of this CME. Characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from approx. 7nT to 9nT with an increase in density and a sustained period of southward field from 2024-09-13T17:45Z from 2024-09-13T21:30Z. There is no clear increase in solar wind speed or temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-13T18:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-14T01:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:  2024-09-11T06:57Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 709
Longitude (deg): E01
Latitude (deg): N30
Half-angular width (deg): 31

Notes: Diffuse eruption, low confidence as fitted mainly to St A cor2. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 19.17 hour(s)
Difference: -6.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-09-12T22:55Z

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